Some thoughts on the exit poll

This is just a quick blog before the proper results from Scotland start to come through. The exit poll, which was pretty accurate at the last General Election, is predicting that the SNP will practically sweep the board in Scotland, and will end up with 55 seats. It’s not clear to me whether this number includes Kirkcaldy or not. It’s a stupendous result if it comes to pass. If it does, keep well clear of Loch Ness as Ruth Davidson – in a desperate bid to remain relevant – has promised to go skinny dipping in the loch if the SNP end up with over 50 seats. There’s really no need Ruth, Loch Ness already has a slimy reptile.

However it also seems that the electorate in the rest of the UK have given Boris Johnson the thumping majority that he was seeking. It proves that you can lie, lie, and lie again and if you’re a right wing British nationalist populist you can still be elected. The poll predicts that the Conservatives will end up with 368 seats, an increase of 50 on their 2017 result. Labour will be left with a mere 191. I could weep. The UK is full of arses who would vote against their own interests because “get Brexit done”.

Scotland is a different country. It’s a country which has rejected Boris Johnson, rejected his Brexit, rejected his lies and his deceit. The United Kingdom is no longer sustainable, although it’s certain that Johnson will use his majority in the Commons in order to try to thwart the democratic will of the people of Scotland.  He might succeed in the short term, but Scotland cannot and will not be denied forever.  The UK died this evening.

In the short term we’re in for a world of pain. We’re going to get Tory neo-conservatism unleashed without anything to restrain it. But if this poll is true, then it also means that Scotland has very firmly and unequivocally demanded its right to decide on its own future. The momentum for another independence referendum, and for independence itself, will be unstoppable. We’re in the darkness of An Dùbhlachd, the Gaelic word for December which literally translates as the gloominess, but the dream of independence is a beacon shining a light on the path to a better country. The next year is going to be huge for Scotland, for the independence movement. This General Election is the General Election that spelled the end of the UK.


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88 thoughts on “Some thoughts on the exit poll

  1. The exit poll is more generous than I thought it would be, but if anywhere near accurate? Then I’d say Mr Bercow just called it. Be some battle of wills right enough. 😎

    • And at long last, Cubby, we’ll have verification that there’s actually more than one monster residing in a Scottish loch (over 300,000 of them compared to 80 in England). More so this one is ugly and vicious looking in comparison to our darling wee Nessie.

    • Sitting here in Sydney glued to Sky UK and trying to stop myself doing a jig. If this exit poll is correct then I feel for the poor gullible people in England’s North who seem to have swallowed the lies whole. However we are unable to help them they appear to have sold their working class principles for a poison chalice of misery to come. Scotland on the other hand will be independent. My relief is palpable. Alba Gu Brath’

  2. “We’re in the darkness of An Dùbhlachd, the Gaelic word for December which literally translates as the gloominess, but the dream of independence is a beacon shining a light on the path to a better country.”

    It was a full moon last night and its peak at 12:12am – on the 12th of December – called the Cold Moon. First time in a couple of thousand years seemingly. What’s the betting Nostradamus has something to say about it…

    • I saw that. Suddenly swam out from behind a cloud. Arrestingly beautiful – pale gold and startingly clear, looming with significance. Didn’t know quite how significant. First time in a couple of thousand years – wow.

  3. A sad night for England if this exit poll is correct. Really, really sad.

    What next? Jeremy Corbyn resigning with Keir Starmer taking over? Many Tory, Brexit hating folks heading north? Even more Scottish, Labour supporters opting for Independence now?

    Thank God we’ve got an option in Scotland that individuals south of the border don’t have.

    And lastly thank God we’ve got a leader like Nicola Sturgeon who is still winning against ALL odds, for example a he**ish lack of funds, enemies such as the insidious British Establishment network, the Media, Westminster and Scottish Unionist political lackeys. More than anything being kicked in the teeth by people / blogger’s who profess to support Independence,

    • You have to wonder what the votes would be like if the media was balanced in Scotland.

      Tories saying 55 seats is not a mandate for indyref2. Ming Campbell saying the SNP need to get 50% of the votes. The Tories have just finished covering Scotland in leaflets saying a vote for the SNP is a vote for Indyref2.

      Whatever the actual result is it just shows what these people are like.

      The Britnats are totally undemocratic.

      • If the Media told the truth, informed the Scots, we would have been out of this horrendous Union decades ago.

        Derek MacKay telling Murdo Fraser, “LBJ may have won the election but he’s going to lose a nation.”

  4. Best laugh on the TV coversge so far – Glenn Campbell’s face is absolutely tripping him every time he has to discuss 55 SNP seats and the possibility of Indyref2.

    The other dug(Dale) in Scottish politics is also being employed by BBC Scotland. She says Boris will tell us to get lost re Indyref2.

    • Turned over from BBC to STV, Cubby. Scunnered with looking / listening to Ms Dugdale.

      First up.

      Labour holds Newcastle.

      Labour holds Sunderland.

  5. Scotland does not want any part of this Tory shitfest. UDI and yellow vests for Xmas. Bring it on ! They have been stealing Scotland’s oil wealth for the past 60 + Years. Enough !!!

  6. Great post Paul. I hope the exit poll is pretty accurate. I feel sorry for the sensible people in England but Scotland is definitely headed into darkness with an unrestrained ultra right wing Tory govt in Westminster but as soneone once said the night is darkest just before the dawn

  7. Scotland has now 3 mandates for a referendum. The SNP must go ahead section 30 or not. If it takes a wee bit of disobedience to get the democratic point across to the Unionists then so be it…..yes it will be a stair heid rammy but hey we have never shied away from a square go in the past!!!

  8. Pingback: Some thoughts on the exit poll | speymouth

  9. Saw the Exit Poll and as I predicted massive swing to the tories in England and a massive swing to the SNP in Gods country. The game is very predictably now on. Take heart fellow Scots for we shall yet again see an auld alliance.

  10. The SSPA have requested people stop phoning their switchboard as it’s been overwhelmed , They issued a statement 12.01 am , We are aware of the threat posed to Nessie and are taking steps to prevent foreign objects entering Loch Ness , force will be used if necessary and warning shots fired .
    Message Ends —-YAH DANCER———-YIPPEE———–.

  11. Well that’s it, no matter how many seats the SNP takes now Brexit, per se, has been clarified so it’s gloves off time. Nicola Sturgeon has called this right all along. Ha ha. It’s now time for everyone to get right behind Nicola Sturgeon and cut out the “undermining cr*p.” Join the party and / or donate, donate, donate. Get onto the streets and pass the facts, truth, around to combat the Media propaganda.

    Meanwhile wee fly wummin Swinson has gone from being the next UK PM to, maybe, residing over a Bakers Dozen.

    Best laugh of the night. Murdo Fraser telling Ponsonby that 55 seats is basically disappointing for the SNP as they had 56 seats previously. Ponsonby sniggering behind his hand.

  12. Murdo Fraser Tory MSP on STV making a total fool of himself by saying if the exit poll is correct it’s not that great a result for the SNP as they got 56 seats in 2015. Other panelists laughing at him. What a clown.

  13. Scots Tories making complete fools of themselves all over multiple TV channels with regards to the exit polls.

    The Scots Tory leaflets coming back to haunt them. If you say the election is all about Indyref2 and you fail you don’t have a leg to stand on.

  14. Tories saying the SNP need to get more than 50% of the vote to have a mandate but that >50% of the vote rule the Tories say does not apply to Boris Johnson. He has a mandate no matter what % of the vote gets.

    Tories are different of course. – they think they are born to rule. The UK is going down a dangerous road with this type of talk.

    Remember the SNP keep winning all the elections. The Tories are not listening.

    Some total Tory tosser Dean Lockhart ignoring election results on STV.

  15. Pauline McNeil Labour showing signs of “coming round.” Aaaah!

    Taking into account that the Tory Party is going to be ruling the roost for another five years (and more?) and will be forging ahead with boundary changes to the detriment of the UK Labour Party, again, it’s high time that Scottish Labour Party politicians and supporters changed tack. Make a radical decision.

    In other words, it’s time for them to support the SNP and with Independence they will find themselves in a position to fight for their left wing, Keir Hardie type, policies again. If not they are as dead as a dodo. Their party has also had a wee taste of the power of media propaganda. The propaganda that the SNP and Scotland in general has been subjected to for decades, if not for centuries.

    Same applies to the Scottish Libdems, especially as they are now being slaughtered. Wee Willie Winkie’s latest contribution to it all is jumping around on a broom. Contributing greatly to the slaughter, no doubt.

    …………

    A win for Margaret Ferrier SNP Rutherglen. Great speech from her too.

  16. Anyone got the link to the latest Independence petition it’s being talked about on Independence live just now they are at the SSCC count , thanks in advance .

  17. Ya beauty Kirstene Hair is now gone never to be seen again no doubt. Glenn Campbell laughingly called her a rising star for the Conservatives. What a clown – Campbell that is.

  18. Just seen Paul Hutcheon on TV and his face is tripping him as well. Hoping to see that ex Daily Record Britnat Clegg as he usually turns up for political shows.

  19. Luke Graham Tory is gone and hopefully for good.

    Britnat Labour in Scotland Leader Leonard still saying there is no mandate for Indyref2. The Britnats are getting like Trump just lie and talk nonsense and ignore reality and hope it goes away.

    Labour in Scotland should pack up its bags and depart down the M74 and not bother coming back again.

    Current score: SNP 14 seats the rest ZERO.

      • Yes overjoyed. Paul Masterton actually emailed me said he did not care for Johnson one little bit and was all for remaining in the EU or at least a good deal. I noted he did not vote against a no deal Brexit and suggested to him he may reap what he has sown. He has got what he deserves. He put his career above his constituents 74% remain vote.

        This is turning into a great night.

  20. Libdem Jo Swinson, callous Tory liar and deluded future Prime Minister, is now out on her bl**dy ar*e too, HA, HA, HA. Brilliant, especially as they used dark money to shut us up and the vowel chewed windbag to dupe everyone. This outcome sends out a clear message to the English population, more so to Westminster, and that is that the Scots have had enough.

    One win after another for the SNP to the point that I can’t keep up now. Sad to say Stephen Gethins is out with Glen Campbell loving it. Maybe need a recount? Brilliant, brilliant guy who will no doubt play a key role in an independent Scotland. Laura Mitchell SNP out too.

    I want Independence for Scotland but you know I actually feel heart sorry for Corbyn. More so for the poverty stricken of England, especially the children. Sad to say, we can’t help them now. But hey, let’s not forget that wee sh*t Swinson has been a MAIN player in contributing to this outcome. “I won’t support Jeremy Corbyn”, but in doing so I’ll help LBJ to get into power.

    And by the way the “impartial” BBC as usual, presented by “I hate the SNP” Glen Campbell (who clearly now has something sticking in his craw), has three London controlled Scottish Unionist politicians set against one SNP politician… Derek MacKay. But by feck Derek MacKay is holding his own and the BBC is the loser. In fact it’s clear that their propaganda hasn’t worked. Nor has the propaganda being used by some so-called Independence bloggers who are now sobbing into their glass of milk or is it rum and now contemplating what to do next to destroy our chances of getting our Independence. Dearie me. Look out for this and if you do and act upon it, it won’t work.

    • Petra, your post is far more eloquent than mine at this time of night.
      My response to the result, left for my man to read when he makes breakfast tomorrow morning having called off watching any of the post-election crap ( and I really can’t blame him) is “YAY! JO SWINSON OUT!”
      ,

  21. A moment to stay up for!

    The Tories didn’t swing behind her like they rallied to the Libs in Fife. You win some, you lose some. And every once in a while it’s your leader!

    Even the BBC’s playing up the constitutional showdown ahead. Theresa May was on, and after an awkward pause, the only answer she had for Andrew Neil’s question about what right does Westminster have to silence us—can you guess yet?—that the nationalists should get on with the day job.

    Getting out of Britain is the day job now. And it’s coming apace.

  22. God I should be getting up at 6. Up at 7 now and running at the coo’s tail for the rest iof the day, but it was worth it.

    Nicola showed her face and then she just disappeared off of the face of the earth. You know the leader of the SNP. The leader of Scotland. Leader of the party that’s decimating the Unionists in Scotland.

    Well Nicola thanks a million. We wouldn’t be where we are without you. You’ve played a blinder, to say the least, as expected. Take some time out now. Get a break. You TRULY deserve it.

    And thank you, thank you, thank you to our First Minister, our brilliant Indy blogger’s like Paul and even more so to our fantastic Indy supporters who have worked their butts off for her, more so for us. For Scotland. For our FREEDOM. And yes it’s coming, Hang on in there. Support her and we’ll dissolve this despicable Union in a heart beat. Over 300 years and coming.

  23. I refer to my comment over a week ago, a Tory majority and a flat out refusal for a second Independence Referendum.
    If the SNP are going to rely on the courts, how did the prorogation hearing go again?

    • Joanna Cherry is returned with increased majority (my vote included) and ready to deploy! Wouldn’t want to be up against her in court.

      As for the battle of the media narrative, we’re winning on the night itself. No credible arguments against us, and lots of air time for our case (albeit in the bleary eyed night owls hours). The BBC even vox popped an independence supporter from Stirling, who made her case perfectly, and wasn’t badgered or opposed. They’re not actively against us tonight. Of all things the Beeb!

      Is this what the turning point feels like?

    • Baw Jaws also refused to send the letter to the EU but he did. He’s aw pish and wind. There is no one can stand in our way, certainly not that effin upper class Etonian tube.

  24. Tears of joy runnin up ma bru and wetting ma hair….. well I am down under in Sydney 😂🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

    • Malky, It’s a braw afternoon here in Adelaide as well. I’ve been following the blog since late this morning when the exit poll was first announced. Looks like that drink could definitely be on next year.

  25. Ya beauty the smug Colin Clark thought he had won when his vote tally was announced but the SNP got revenge for A. Salmond.

    Well done Richard Thomson SNP for wiping that smug smile off Clarks face.

  26. Michelle Ballantye Tory MSP now on STV. Her face would curdle milk at a glance. Not a good sight at this time in the morning. She has the cheek to say the SNP has no mandate for Indyref2. The brass neck of these Britnats is something to behold.

  27. FFS Truthless Davidson turns up once it’s clear the SNP will just come up shy of the 50 seat mark ( the tally that she said she would take a trip to Loch Ness). She is a coward. Hides when there is a problem then comes out her hiding place when the coast is clear. She is deliberately mixing up a mandate for independence with a mandate for Indyref2. A Tory liar full of deceit and misrepresentation.

  28. Loooong night and a short sleep. The numbers for the SNP have pretty much wound up where I thought most likely before the exit poll. Actually a couple of seats more. (46 when I went to make some toast and now 48 declared) A good night by any standard. 🙂 That’s the good news bit.

    The bad news?

    Lordy, what a PM in Westminster!

      • A good result all round but not pleased that D&G voted again for useless Alister Jack instead of Richard Arkless. Gallovidians, what can you do with them? Those two constituencies that voted for Jack and Mundell obviously don’t care about the quality of those who represent them as long as they wear a blue rosette. ( Their demographic is heavily weighted towards the over 60s which might have something to do with it. They are also very dependent on the NHS but still they vote Tory.)

      • They might wish that hadn’t happened in the long run. Ditto Mr Johnson.

        Tories won by a landslide south of the border and folk will remember why they voted that way and what they were promised. When the reality doesn’t meet the fibbery they were sold? I’m guessing they won’t be very pleased.

  29. Yesss Jo Swinson my former MP gone ya beauty. Deserves her right for taking the piss out of her constituents by basically being an absentee MP. Scotland has basically told the three unionist parties particularly the Tories to feck off. So sad that Stephen Gethins lost though.
    As for what happened in England. I feel so sorry for the sensible people down there. God help us with Bozo with a big majority. Rampant English Nationalism. I think England has basically left any idea of a United Kingdom

  30. Johnson says we are winning in the whole country. No you are not. You don’t even stand in N.Ireland and you have only 6 seats out of 59 in Scotland. This is an insight to Johnsons idea of what he sees as his country – namely, Engand.

    This guy just lies and lies. It’s going to be like Trump in the USA a non stop torrent of lies and misrepresentation for 5 years or we vote for independence.

    Nigel Dodds DUP loses his seat. The good news just keeps on coming.

    48 seats for the SNP. – 1 seat for Labour – 6 for the Tories 4 for Lib Dems

    That’s not a mandate say the Britnats.

  31. Glenn Campbell’s face was a picture.
    We got our Portillo moment too. Jo Swinson turfed out, and resigned. Corbyn resigned but not just yet.
    Glenn Campbell died a thousand deaths….
    Ran out of popcorn.
    Great night.
    Kezia Dugdale asked: Should Leonard resign too?
    No, nobody else wants the job.

    I’m tired, but it’s a good tired.
    England will leave Europe at the end of Jan 2020.
    The real work starts now.
    We have an escape pod.
    48 SNP
    6 Tory
    4 LD
    I Labour.
    Yes!!!!!

  32. Sorry that Cymru can’t join the party, Scotland – at least not just yet.

    My congratulations to my second leader. I promise to work harder than ever with you next year to secure indy. Perhaps then something will rub off on my country and we will seriously think that that is our best route to salvation. I personally feel ill for the future of Cymru if we are going to be subject to the demons of estminster for another 5 years. But also delighted for you, my cousins, as it does indeed seem that the ‘UK’ as currently constituted died last night.

    Scotland is showing the way, Cymru. For Pete’s sake learn from her, before it’s too late.

    Tros Gymru / For Scotland.

  33. Auld carloss jackass might want to reflect on his statement.
    The Union is on the ballot this election.
    Much like the oft repeated ‘Once in a Generation’
    Now we can skewer the tories with his utterance.
    The SNP won the election in Scotland with a Superlandslide, 80% of the seats, the onionists got 20%.
    The FPTP system is severely broken.
    For carloss ‘ There is NO mandate in Scotland for the Union’, are you listening?

  34. It needs to happen now. Little England needs to have its brexit. It needs to see for itself how the real world works. It needs to see how little influence they have. They need to suffer along with the innocent. To stand witness to what their stupidity has brought about.

    I voted remain
    I voted SNP
    My conscience is clear.

    For unionists who voted tory to ensure Scotland had ringside seats to this tragedy, you have my undying contempt.

  35. Realty check
    If we are still chained to waste monster and the Fridge Magnet come the next Holyrood election. I would suggest that the proposition put forward by another blog should be looked at seriously. If the election system works as I understand it and they suggested.
    Then the votes have to be.
    SNP 1
    Green 2 (list)

    Careless and Leotard out alone with their troops irrespective of review results.

    Independence and the planet going forward.

  36. Having taken a wee bit time to digest the results, I feel not too bad. I agree with you Paul, last night the union died. I reckon this will, in the long run, turn out to be a pyrrhic victory for bojo, when you look at results in Scotland and NI, they’ve lost us. We will gain our independence,( not without a hard struggle, but nobody said that it’s be easy) and Ireland will reunite.

    I see Labour in Scotland will need to listen and learn, aye right. You’ve said that since the SNP beat you in 2010. You neither listen nor learn, or being kind, maybe you’re just slow learners. Time to wake up, or die, and I really don’t care which.

    • carol, last night the Labour Party died, which was Corbyn’s and McDonnell’s ultimate aim.
      You may recall McDonnell tossing Chairman Mao’s wee Red Book across the floor of the House when he and Jeremy took over the reins following appointment as leaders on the back of hundreds of thousands of Momentum members.
      These wizened old men made no bones about the fact that they are old style USSR Communists, Marxists, and in another time would have been hard left ‘Militants’ within the ranks of the Labour Party, hell bent on destroying the principles of social democracy within the Labour Movement.

      The sheer nonsense of Corbyn’s manifesto plans to renationalise everything from rail, water, and fuel, abolish fee paying schools, tax the billionaires, at the same time negotiating new trade deals with the EU, or maybe not, was designed to ensure that England would leave the EU and the Labour Party dealt a fatal blow.
      These people are Communists, not Labour supporters; and by ‘Labour’ I don’t mean Tony Blair/Gordon Brown New Labour, which was merely a lighter blue than the Tories.
      It is time for Labour in Scotland to kick this Momentum/ Commie/ Red element out of the party, and perhaps think the unthinkable; break away from London, form a Social Democratic Scottish Labour Party and support Scottish Self Determination.
      Richard Leonard is a joke.
      He’s an old Commie ‘everybody out’ shop steward, nothing more, nothing less.
      The people who voted Labour in Scottish seats this time, and now face 10 years of Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg far right wing tyranny will never trust Momentum controlled Labour again.

      The time is now, Labour is Scotland must break the chains that bind them to London and the sinister Momentum anarchists.

  37. The SNP have played a Blinder !!
    Now Nicola can fairly say she respects the will off the people of England and won’t be trying to save them anymore from Brexit and Get on with Independence !
    She has her country’s full support its all clear now
    “GET INDY DONE “

  38. They are off again saying the % of vote does not support Independence. 16+ and migrants could not vote in the GE. That would increase the IndyRef vote.

    In 2014 IndyRef the migrants voted No to stay in the EU. If they had voted YES. YES would have won. They will the next time. 200,000 from No to Yes plus the 16+ year olds.

    If migrants could have voted in the Brexit Ref. Remain would have won.

    Johnston got 44% of the vote. Not a majority. Brexit will never get done without ruining the economy.

    After Thatcher it was closer ties with Europe that improved the economy. They had to get rid of her. Geoffrey Howe and Co. People forget or are ignorant of Thatcher times. The social unrest and violence. Interest rates at 17%. Unemployment at 20% NI (the troubles). 15% in Scotland. The only place unemployment was under 10% was London S/E. Funded by the Oil monies taken secretly and illegally from Scotland.

    Now the SNP can stand up for Scotland.

  39. SNP had no option but call it on Indy and Brexit after the 2017 GE, and with Tory/Labour taking a polar opposite position, the risk for “no demand for Indyref2” being underlined was all too real.
    Much relief this morning to see the strategy pay off in 48 seats, not the heady 55 of the exit poll but creditable all the same.
    Labour back to a solitary seat in Scotland, even as Corbyn takes the blame, how the mighty have fallen.
    The Tory 6 were disappointing, yet in 4 of them the increased SNP vote is nipping at an ever shrinking majority.
    Good riddance to the Vowel murderer, from future PM to P45 in 6 weeks could not be more fitting.
    So a UK win for the Charlatan in Chief, the lies and chicanery giving the Tories a stay of execution. It is only a matter of time before the English electorate realise their mistake, but by then it will be too late.
    Next step, the request for a Section 30 Order… Let battle commence…

  40. Feel a little sorry for those SNPs returned to Westminster politics. If we thought the behaviour of the Tories was bad before it will be nothing to being confronted by the ugly triumphalism that will be on show now. A way of dealing with that situation will have to be found for the sake of the SNP MPs if not for the collective frustration of indy supporters. There will be little respect and protection coming from the Speaker’s chair.

    I hope that international audiences who watched with fascinated disbelief the unfolding unlovely scenes in the so-called Mother of Parliaments before, will continue to observe so that the farce that is Westminster destroys forever the imagined reputation of democratic seriousness it mistakenly enjoyed abroad.

  41. I’m having a discussion online about Scottish oil. She says it doesn’t belong to Scotland, it belongs to BP. Could someone please point me in the direction of a simple answer to where the oil money goes and where it would go if we were independent. Thanks

    • Tatu the money via paltry taxation goes into Westminster coffers to do as they please. The majority of it goes into shareholders pockets aka multi millionaires who own the likes of BP or Shell. I have worked in the oil industry for 45 years and like others have stood passively by and watched this corporate theft ably assisted under Tory and Labour administrations. BP or any other multi national working the North Sea do not own Scotland’s oil. It belongs to the people of Scotland. Come independence we will control that extraction. First on that agenda would be the re-introduction of Petroleum Revenue Tax which has magically disappeared. Oil companies need to be made to work for Scotland not the other way around.

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